China’s loss would be a win for Taiwan and Thailand

Kaohsiung_TaiwanIf a trade war with the US hurts China’s industrial output, other Asian countries such as Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand are expected to benefit. The assessment from an analyst at BNY Mellon Investment Management takes the view that other Asian countries have been disadvantaged by China’s policy of propping up industry with government spending. “As long as the global trade pie does not suddenly begin to shrink, most east Asian economies, their export and investment cycles, in particular should continue to be fine,” said Aninda Mitra. “If anything, limited trade diversion (away from China) may also throw up some interesting winners with production and sourcing of supplies shifting back to places like Taiwan, Malaysia or Thailand – where firms have up until now been disadvantaged by Chinese state subsidies.” Mitra, who recently visited Shanghai, said he detected alarm and nervousness there about a full-blown trade war with the US, “which comes at a bad time for China”. ©2018 funds global asia

Executive Interviews

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Changes to regulation, US-Sino trade tensions and further steps by China to open its capital markets were some of the topics discussed by our panel. Chaired by Romil Patel in Hong Kong.

SINGAPORE ROUNDTABLE: Optimism versus caution

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The impact of financial technology, developments in Asian passporting and the promise of new markets in Thailand were among the topics discussed by our panel. Chaired by George Mitton in Singapore.